The Observation
Tech news feels samey. Scroll any aggregator and the headlines blur: AI this, AI that, AI everywhere. It's not your imagination.
We analyzed 77,000 Techmeme articles from 2017-2025 using vector embeddings to measure semantic similarity. The finding: tech news hasn't just consolidated around fewer topics—a single meta-narrative has infiltrated all other narratives, making previously distinct categories semantically similar while maintaining surface-level diversity.
Semantic Compression
-5.5%
2025 articles more similar than any prior year
This isn't consolidation. It's infiltration. And the mechanism matters for anyone building in tech.
The Mechanism: Infiltration, Not Consolidation
The intuition that "everything is AI now" is correct, but the framing is wrong. AI didn't replace other tech beats. It infected them.
Layoffs coverage didn't disappear. It became AI layoffs coverage. Streaming coverage didn't disappear. It became AI-in-streaming coverage. Antitrust coverage didn't disappear. It became AI-antitrust coverage.
We measured this using "AI-adjacency"—the semantic similarity between each article and an "artificial intelligence machine learning" reference embedding. Articles above 0.35 similarity are classified as AI-adjacent.
| Feature | Category | 2019-2020 | 2024-2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| layoffs | Layoffs | 0.05 AI-adjacency | 0.37 AI-adjacency | +640% |
| antitrust | Antitrust | 0.10 AI-adjacency | 0.38+ peaks | +280% |
| streaming | Streaming | 0.08 AI-adjacency | 0.35+ peaks | +340% |
The same beat, different lens.
Case Study: The Same Beat, Different Lens
Layoffs Coverage
2019-2020: Pure Business Framing
”"Expedia is laying off ~3,000 employees, 12% of its workforce, says it has been 'pursuing growth'" — GeekWire, 2020-02-25
”"WeWork says it is laying off around 2,400 employees globally" — CNBC, 2019-11-21
2024-2025: AI-Adjacent Framing
”"Financial stress from AI infrastructure spending, overhiring, and recession fears, rather than efficiency gains, are driving layoffs" — Fast Company, 2025-11-10
”"In March, New York added a checkbox to its WARN system for companies to show if 'technology' contributed to layoffs" — Bloomberg, 2025-06-16
”"Salesforce says it will hire 2,000 people to sell AI agent software, a month after saying it would not hire any engineers in 2025" — CNBC, 2024-12-18
In 2020, a layoffs story was about business fundamentals. In 2025, layoffs stories are about AI—displacement, adaptation, infrastructure costs. The beat didn't change. The lens did.
Antitrust Coverage
2019-2020: Social Media Focus
”"Facebook responds to Chris Hughes, says it is not a monopoly" — New York Times, 2019-05-12
”"A lawyer for Amazon says Jeff Bezos is willing to testify before a House antitrust investigation" — New York Times, 2020-06-15
2024-2025: AI Companies as Targets
”"Elon Musk says that Apple 'makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI' to top its App Store" — Reuters, 2025-08-12
”"The Google search antitrust trial is effectively a fight about AI's future" — New York Times, 2025-05-02
”"Sources: the US DOJ will take the lead in investigating whether Nvidia has violated antitrust laws" — New York Times, 2024-06-06
The regulatory beat didn't shrink. It pivoted to AI companies.
Hype Cycles vs. Structural Shifts
The most important finding: AI coverage shows no decay after 12 quarters. This breaks the classic hype cycle pattern.
NFT: Classic Boom-Bust
Peak (2022Q1): 81 articles
”"Mark Zuckerberg says NFT support will be coming to Instagram over the next several months" — Engadget, 2022-03-16, Position #4, 34 related
”"Recent filings from Walmart indicate a possible plan to develop and offer virtual goods, NFTs, and a cryptocurrency" — CNBC, 2022-01-17, Position #1, 32 related
”"Valve quietly updates Steam's rules to ban games built on blockchain technology that issue or allow exchange of NFTs" — The Verge, 2021-10-16, Position #1, 32 related
Collapse (2025Q4): 1 article
”"How NFT marketplace OpenSea became a crypto trading aggregator" — Position #48, 1 related
From position #1 with 34 related articles to position #48 with a single article about OpenSea pivoting away from NFTs.
Metaverse: The Facebook Rename Bubble
Peak (2021Q4): 28 articles
”"Source: Facebook is planning to change its company name to reflect its focus on the metaverse as soon as next week" — The Verge, 2021-10-20, Position #1, 57 related
Collapse (2025Q4): 4 articles
”"Sources: Meta is considering deep budget cuts to its metaverse efforts in 2026, potentially as high as 30%" — Bloomberg, Position #1
”"Meta says it's shifting some of its metaverse investment to AI glasses and wearables 'given the momentum'" — New York Times
The metaverse stories that remain are about retreating from metaverse to AI.
ChatGPT: No Decay
Launch (2022Q4): 12 articles
”"OpenAI releases a demo of ChatGPT, a chatbot version of GPT-3 that answers follow-up questions, admits its mistakes, challenges incorrect premises" — MIT Technology Review, 2022-12-01, Position #4
”"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says ChatGPT crossed 1M users in five days" — @sama
2025Q4: 81 articles (same as NFT at peak)
”"OpenAI announces apps that work inside ChatGPT" — Position #1, 65 related articles
”"Internal memo: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declares a 'code red' to shift more resources" — The Information, 36 related
The Pattern Break: NFT went from 81 articles (2022Q1) to 1 article (2025Q4)—a 99% collapse. ChatGPT went from launch to 81 articles (2025Q4) with no decay. Same initial trajectory, completely different structure.
This isn't a hype cycle. It's a permanent reorganization of tech coverage.
The Leading Indicators
Cross-correlation analysis reveals predictable timing relationships in tech coverage.
Chips Lead AI by 4 Quarters (r = 0.903)
The strongest correlation in the dataset: semiconductor coverage precedes AI capability coverage by approximately one year.
Q4 2022: The Chip Headlines
”"TSMC plans to more than triple its Arizona investment to $40B, building a fab for 3nm chips" — Financial Times, Position #6, 20 related
”"Samsung details a five-year roadmap for mass producing advanced chips" — Bloomberg, Position #11
”"Apple, AMD, and Nvidia indicate they plan to buy chips from TSMC's two future Arizona fabs" — CNBC, Position #3
Q4 2023: The AI Capability Headlines (4 Quarters Later)
”"Google unveils Gemini, an AI model with Ultra, Pro, and Nano tiers" — Position #1, 29 related
”"OpenAI debuts GPT-4 Turbo with a 128K-token context window" — TechCrunch, 30 related
The infrastructure investments of 2022 enabled the capability breakthroughs of 2023. This is the agent economics leading indicator—chip economics precede agent unit economics.
AI Leads Regulation by 1 Quarter (r = 0.839)
AI capability announcements precede regulatory coverage by approximately one quarter. The trust architecture implication: build compliance before mandates arrive.
The Crossover Moments
AI Overtakes Social Media (Q4 2023)
The quarter where AI coverage decisively surpassed social media as the dominant tech narrative.
The Symbolic Moment: Sam Altman's ouster (76 related articles) was the most-covered tech story of Q4 2023—more than any social media story that quarter.
”"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman departs the company and leaves its board after a board review" — Position #1, 76 related articles
”"OpenAI staff release a letter, signed by Ilya Sutskever and 500+ others, saying they may resign" — Position #2, 52 related
Social media that quarter:
”"Sources: Meta pitched a plan to EU regulators to charge European users a subscription" — Position #27, 45 related
The ratio inverted and never recovered. Social media is now a sub-beat of AI coverage.
Agents Overtake Chatbots (Q4 2024)
The language of autonomy shifted from "chatbot" (conversational interface) to "agent" (autonomous action).
| Feature | Term | 2022 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| agent | Agent/Agentic | 1 article | 209 articles | +20,800% |
| chatbot | Chatbot | 18 articles | 110 articles | +511% |
| copilot | Copilot | 7 articles | 69 articles | +886% |
The Crossover Headlines (Q4 2024):
”"Microsoft unveils 10 new AI agents for its enterprise-focused Dynamics 365 apps" — Position #5, 27 related
”"Sources: OpenAI plans to launch a new AI agent codenamed Operator" — Bloomberg, Position #11, 19 related
This validates the agent thesis: the semantic shift from tools to autonomous actors happened, and we can date it to Q4 2024.
Startups Approach Big Tech (2025)
The most surprising finding: AI startups went from 3% of Big Tech's coverage (2020) to 86% (2025).
| Feature | Year | AI Startups | Big Tech AI | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020 | 15 | 456 | 0.03x |
| 2022 | 2022 | 38 | 507 | 0.07x |
| 2024 | 2024 | 596 | 990 | 0.60x |
| 2025 | 2025 | 974 | 1,139 | 0.86x |
The "AI concentrates power in Big Tech" narrative is wrong—at least by coverage metrics. The two-pizza agent team is gaining ground. See also: Why Small Wins.
The Quiet Collapses
While AI coverage grew, other beats quietly declined. The gaps are opportunities.
Streaming: -25% Coverage
Peak (2021): Streaming wars, new entrants, password crackdowns
”"Netflix is running a test cracking down on password sharing" — Position #5, 45 related
Now (2025): Consolidation only
”"Netflix agrees to acquire WBD's studios and streaming business in an $82.7B cash deal" — Position #3, 112 related
The streaming stories that remain are M&A—the wars are over. But this is where AI interfaces are heading: ambient, always-on, voice-first. The coverage decline doesn't mean the opportunity is gone. It means attention has moved elsewhere while the infrastructure matures. See Beyond Chat Interfaces.
Cybersecurity: -14% Coverage
Coverage down while attacks surge. This is the definition of an attention arbitrage opportunity.
2021 Peak:
”"T-Mobile confirms hackers gained access to its systems" — Position #1, 79 related
”"Twitch acknowledges a 'breach' after a 4chan user leaks its source code" — Position #3, 52 related
2025:
”"Alphabet acquires NYC-based cybersecurity startup Wiz for $32B" — Position #1, 67 related
The Wiz acquisition shows where the value accrued—but the beat itself gets less attention. The agent attack surface is expanding while coverage contracts.
What This Means for Builders
1. Every Vertical Is an AI Vertical
The vertical agents winning thesis is now baseline. There is no "non-AI" vertical left to build in. The question isn't whether to use AI—it's how to capture value when AI is table stakes.
2. The Coverage Signal
Chips → AI (4Q lead): Watch semiconductor coverage for AI capability forecasts. The infrastructure precedes the breakthrough.
AI → Regulation (1Q lead): Build trust architecture before mandates arrive. You have one quarter of lead time.
3. The Attention Gaps Are the Opportunities
Coverage collapsed in cybersecurity, streaming, and traditional SaaS. Attacks didn't stop. Users didn't leave. The infrastructure still needs building. When attention moves away, capital follows—but the problems remain.
4. The Startup Window Is Open
Startups went from 3% to 86% of Big Tech's AI coverage. The production gap is closing. The window where startups can establish position before Big Tech catches up is measurable—and narrowing.
Methodology
Dataset: 77,000 Techmeme articles (2017-2025) Embeddings: OpenAI text-embedding-3-small (1536 dimensions) Semantic spread: Mean cosine distance from quarterly centroid AI-adjacency: Cosine similarity to "artificial intelligence machine learning" reference embedding Lead/lag detection: Cross-correlation with ±4 quarter lag range Validation: Bootstrap confidence intervals, permutation tests (p < 0.05)
The Permanent Reorganization
Tech news feels samey because it is—semantically. But it's not consolidation. It's infiltration. AI became the lens through which all other tech narratives are told.
This isn't temporary. The coverage patterns show no decay after 12 quarters. The structural shift is permanent.
For builders, the implication is clear: there is no "non-AI" strategy anymore. The only question is how you capture value in a world where AI is the substrate.
The Arc of Tech History: Platform reckoning (2017) → Privacy awakening (2018) → Antitrust stirs (2019) → Pandemic pivot (2020) → Metaverse mania (2021) → Crypto winter (2022) → AI eruption (2023) → AI infrastructure (2024) → AI everywhere (2025)
See also: The Agent Thesis for the strategic framework, Vertical Agents Winning for market positioning, and The Production Gap for why most AI projects still fail.
The Agent Thesis: What We Know After 100 Deployments
A synthesis of the patterns that separate agents that ship from agents that die in pilot purgatory. The throughlines across architecture, operations, economics, and security.
Vertical Agents Are Eating Horizontal Agents
Harvey ($8B), Cursor ($29B), Abridge ($2.5B): vertical agents are winning. The "do anything" agent was a transitional form—enterprises buy solutions, not intelligence.
Why 90% of AI Pilots Still Fail (And How to Beat the Odds)
Only 5-10% of enterprise AI initiatives escape pilot phase to deliver measurable ROI. The problem isn't the technology—it's data readiness, the performance illusion, and organizational deficits.
The Two Pizza Agent Team: Skunkworks for Enterprise AI
The organizational playbook for AI adoption isn't about committees and roadmaps. It's about small, autonomous teams with something to prove. Here's why the Bezos model wins again.