The Word That Didn't Exist
On January 6, 2025, the word "agentic" had never appeared in a major tech headline. By December 26, it had appeared in 50. In between, the term defined a category that spawned 139 funded startups, two $10B+ valuations, and a three-way race between Salesforce, Microsoft, and OpenAI.
'Agentic' Headlines
0 → 50
January to December 2025
This is the story of how enterprise AI invented a word—and a $100B market.
Part 1: The Pre-History (2018-2023)
When Agents Were Games
Before 2024, "AI agent" meant one thing: game-playing systems in research labs.
”"New research from OpenAI shows how an AI agent with a sense of curiosity outperformed its predecessors playing the classic 1984 Atari game Montezuma's Revenge" — The Verge, November 2018, Position #4, 3 related
”"DeepMind researchers detail how they designed autonomous agents that exhibited humanlike behavior when playing a first-person multiplayer game mode in Quake III" — New York Times, June 2019, Position #4, 11 related
| Feature | Year | AI Agent | Agentic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | 2019 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020 | 2020 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | 2021 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | 2022 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023 | 2023 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024 | 2024 | 50 | 0 |
| 2025 | 2025 | 163 | 50 |
The pattern is clear: AI agents were academic curiosities. Zero enterprise relevance until ChatGPT created the foundation.
Part 2: The Inflection (Q4 2024)
Three Weeks That Changed Everything
Between September 13 and November 14, 2024, three announcements created a category:
September 13, 2024 — Salesforce declares the pivot
”"Interviews with Marc Benioff and others about Salesforce's 'hard pivot' to Agentforce, a platform for users to build and deploy AI agents in Salesforce's apps" — Fortune, September 2024, Position #30, 4 related
October 21, 2024 — Microsoft responds
”"Microsoft unveils 10 new AI agents for its enterprise-focused Dynamics 365 apps covering sales, finance, and more, ahead of Salesforce's Agentforce availability" — GeekWire, October 2024, Position #5, 27 related
November 14, 2024 — OpenAI enters the race
”"Sources: OpenAI plans to launch a new AI agent codenamed Operator, which can use a computer to take actions on a person's behalf, in January 2025" — Bloomberg, November 2024, Position #11, 19 related
The Q4 2024 Signal: In 8 weeks, the three largest enterprise software companies declared agents as their strategic direction. The category was no longer theoretical.
Part 3: The Word Appears (2025)
First "Agentic" Mentions
The word "agentic" entered tech vocabulary on January 7, 2025:
”"Nvidia debuts the Llama Nemotron and Cosmos Nemotron family of models to advance agentic AI, in Nano, Super, and Ultra sizes, on Nvidia's site and Hugging Face" — VentureBeat, January 2025, Position #8, 8 related
Then it spread:
”"Anthropic releases Claude 3.7 Sonnet, a hybrid model that can produce fast responses or extended, step-by-step thinking, and Claude Code, an agentic coding tool" — TechCrunch, February 2025, Position #9, 20 related
”"Internal email: Amazon forms a new group focused on agentic AI, led by AWS executive Swami Sivasubramanian, who will report directly to AWS CEO Matt Garman" — Reuters, March 2025, Position #48, 6 related
The $2.85B Legitimacy Event
The ServiceNow-Moveworks acquisition cemented "agentic" as enterprise vocabulary:
”"ServiceNow says it plans to acquire agentic AI company Moveworks for $2.85B, its largest-ever acquisition, in a cash and stock deal set to close in H2 2025" — Reuters, March 2025, Position #12, 19 related
Moveworks Acquisition
$2.85B
Set the M&A floor for agentic startups
Part 4: The Startup Explosion
Two Unicorns in Coding Agents Alone
The agent category created the fastest startup value creation in enterprise software history.
Sierra: Customer Service Agents
”"Bret Taylor's Sierra raised $350M at a $10B valuation, up from $4.5B in October 2024, and says its AI customer service agents are used by 'hundreds of millions'" — CNBC, September 2025, Position #31, 7 related
Cognition: Coding Agents
”"Cognition raised $400M led by Founders Fund at a $10.2B valuation, up from $4B in March; its coding tool Devin's ARR grew from $1M in Sept. 2024 to $73M by June" — Bloomberg, September 2025, Position #13, 0 related
Cursor: AI-Assisted Coding
”"Sources: Anysphere, maker of AI coding tool Cursor, raised $900M at a $9B valuation, up from $2.5B in January 2025, led by Thrive; a16z and Accel also invested" — Financial Times, May 2025, Position #5, 3 related
| Feature | Company | Category | Valuation | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cognition | Cognition (Devin) | Coding | $10.2B | Sep 2025 |
| sierra | Sierra | Customer Service | $10B | Sep 2025 |
| cursor | Cursor (Anysphere) | Coding | $9B | May 2025 |
| manus | Manus | General Agent | $500M | Apr 2025 |
The Manus Phenomenon
A Chinese startup became the viral proof point:
”"A look at Manus, which its Chinese creators claim is the world's first fully autonomous AI agent, as some say it might be China's second DeepSeek moment" — Forbes, March 2025, Position #5, 17 related
”"Chinese startup Manus raised $75M led by Benchmark at a $500M valuation, and plans to expand to markets including the US, Japan, and the Middle East" — Bloomberg, April 2025, Position #15, 3 related
Manus in 8 Months
$100M ARR
December 2025 milestone
A general-purpose agent startup reaching $100M ARR in 8 months. The category was real.
Part 5: The Capability Race
Computer Use Becomes Table Stakes
Anthropic pioneered it. Everyone else followed.
”"Anthropic releases a new Claude 3.5 Sonnet model that can interact with desktop apps by imitating mouse and keyboard input via a 'computer use' API, now in beta" — TechCrunch, October 2024, Position #1, 3 related
”"OpenAI partners with DoorDash, eBay, Instacart, Priceline, StubHub, Uber, and other companies to ensure that Operator respects their terms of service agreements" — TechCrunch, January 2025, Position #15, 13 related
”"Microsoft adds a 'computer use' tool in Copilot Studio to let AI agents use websites and desktop apps; the feature is designed to detect UI changes dynamically" — The Verge, April 2025, Position #16, 4 related
”"Google releases the Gemini 2.5 Computer Use model, built on Gemini 2.5 Pro's capabilities to power agents that can interact with UIs, in preview via the API" — The Keyword, October 2025, Position #41, 21 related
The Pattern: Anthropic ships computer use (October 2024). OpenAI commercializes it (January 2025). Microsoft and Google follow (April-October 2025). 12 months from research demo to industry standard.
Part 6: The DOD Legitimizes the Category
National Security Goes Agentic
The Department of Defense validated the category with institutional capital:
”"The US DOD announces OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI have each won contracts with a $200M ceiling, aimed at enabling agentic AI national security workflows" — Reuters, July 2025, Position #37, 31 related
”"Trump signs an EO establishing the Genesis Mission to boost AI innovation, including by using federal scientific datasets to train models and create AI agents" — Reuters, November 2025, Position #3, 33 related
DOD Contract Ceiling
$200M
Per company for agentic workflows
When the DOD awards $200M ceiling contracts for "agentic AI national security workflows," the category has moved from hype to institutional adoption.
Part 7: The Monthly Arc
2025 Coverage by Month
| Month | Articles | Key Event |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 14 | Operator launches |
| Feb | 15 | Deep Research, Claude 3.7 |
| Mar | 34 | ServiceNow-Moveworks $2.85B |
| Apr | 17 | Amazon "Buy for Me" |
| May | 28 | Claude Code GA, Cursor $9B |
| Jun | 30 | Anthropic Claude Research |
| Jul | 32 | DOD contracts, ChatGPT Agent |
| Aug | 17 | Manus Wide Research |
| Sep | 26 | Sierra $10B, Cognition $10.2B |
| Oct | 39 | Gemini 2.5 Computer Use |
| Nov | 29 | Claude Opus 4.5, Trump EO |
| Dec | 25 | Manus $100M ARR |
Peak month: July 2025 — driven by DOD contracts and ChatGPT Agent launch.
Part 8: Who Owned the Category?
Company Share of Agent Coverage (2025)
| Feature | Company | Articles | Avg Related | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| other | Startups/Other | 171 | 3.7 | Fragmented |
| 33 | 11.1 | Highest impact | ||
| openai | OpenAI | 33 | 6.9 | Consumer-focused |
| microsoft | Microsoft | 26 | 9.4 | Enterprise incumbent |
| anthropic | Anthropic | 16 | 8.8 | Developer-focused |
| salesforce | Salesforce | 11 | 8.8 | Category creator |
No single company dominated. Startups captured 54% of coverage. The category fragmented immediately.
The Three-Act Structure
Act 1: Research Curiosity (2018-2023)
AI agents existed only in gaming research. DeepMind's Quake III bots. OpenAI's Montezuma's Revenge. Zero enterprise relevance.
Act 2: Category Creation (Q4 2024)
Three weeks changed everything:
- Sep 13: Salesforce Agentforce launches
- Oct 21: Microsoft Dynamics agents
- Nov 14: OpenAI Operator leaked
Enterprise declared: "Agents are the product."
Act 3: Explosion (2025)
The word "agentic" entered the vocabulary. The DOD legitimized the category. Two coding agent startups hit $10B valuations. Manus reached $100M ARR in 8 months.
What This Means
For Enterprise Software
- Every SaaS is adding agents — ServiceNow, Salesforce, Microsoft leading
- The $2.85B Moveworks acquisition set the M&A floor
- Workflow automation is the wedge — agents start with specific tasks
For Startups
- Vertical beats horizontal — Sierra (customer service), Cognition (coding), specialized agents winning
- Speed matters — Manus: 8 months to $100M ARR
- Valuations are extreme — $9-10B for coding assistants
For the Category
- "Agentic" is now permanent vocabulary — 50 headlines created a category
- Computer use is table stakes — every major model has it
- The DOD legitimized it — $200M ceiling contracts for national security workflows
The Pattern: The "agentic" category is the fastest category creation in enterprise software history. A word that didn't exist in January 2025 now defines $10B+ startups, $2.85B acquisitions, and 139 funded companies.
The Question That Remains
The agent thesis was a prediction. The data is the confirmation.
- 163x growth: "AI agent" mentions from 1 (2018) to 163 (2025)
- Category invented: "Agentic" from 0 (pre-2025) to 50 (2025)
- 139 funded startups in 24 months
The question isn't whether agents are real. The data proves they are.
The question is whether the current valuations can be sustained when the category fragments further. When every SaaS has agents, what's the moat?
See also: The Agent Thesis for the strategic framework, State of Agents for market mapping, and Agent Memory Architecture for technical patterns.
The Agent Thesis: What We Know After 100 Deployments
A synthesis of the patterns that separate agents that ship from agents that die in pilot purgatory. The throughlines across architecture, operations, economics, and security.
The Autonomous Revolution: AI Agents Rewriting Work
The workforce is evolving—literally. AI agents are no longer experimental tools but genetically optimized systems driving 50%+ of enterprise operations autonomously.
Agent Memory: From Stateless to Stateful AI
LLMs are stateless by design. Agents require state. The memory architectures—context management, vector stores, knowledge graphs—that transform amnesiacs into collaborators.
The Agent Thesis, Quantified: How We Went From Chatbots to Autonomous Agents
The semantic shift from 'chatbot' to 'agent' wasn't gradual - it was sudden. Analysis of 77,000 articles reveals the exact quarter autonomy language took over. The agent era began Q4 2024.